Political punditry is now a full-blown industry in America, with billions being made by a cottage industry of professionals who claim to be able to predict the future. Whether it’s the outcome of an upcoming election or the date of the next stock market crash, people will pay a premium to hear how the experts think things will play out.
However, rather than shelling out on a Politico subscription or obsessively following the talking heads on MSNBC, anyone who wants a good idea of what looks likely in the realm of politics can simply consult the gambling industry for free. As well as offering odds on horse races and NFL fixtures, bookmakers routinely offer odds on political developments that anyone can place a wager on.
What’s more, there has been evidence in the past to suggest that the odds offered by the bookies on major political topics can be more accurate than the predictions of the so-called experts. If you want to know what will happen in politics in the year ahead, here’s what the casino bookies have to say.
1. Democratic Nomination: Biden Bags It
The rigmarole of the Democratic Primaries is set to continue until July 2020, but the bookies already have a pretty good idea of who is going to secure the nomination. You can visit major betting sites like Betfair to find out the odds of the 2020 Democratic nominee in real-time, and those odds are currently saying that former underdog Joe Biden is looking like the most likely winner with odds of 1/8. Of course, it’s worth noting that Biden was attracting much lower odds from the bookies just a few weeks ago, back when his campaign was floundering, so anyone looking to place a bet on Biden may find their odds change in the runup to the summer.
2. Next President of the United States: Donald Stays on
While the election outcome is all up for grabs, the odds calculators in the biggest bookmakers seem to think the current president Donald Trump has the best odds of winning. This may be in part due to the fact that the vast majority of sitting first-term presidents seeking a second term tends to win, or it may be related to the odds of the current Democratic nominees. Bookmakers use a massive range of factors to calculate their odds, and all of that data is currently suggesting that 45 is in it to win it.
3. Democratic VC: Stacey Abrams Comes out on Top
Although the race for the Democratic VP gets comparatively less attention in the media, bookmakers follow developments closely and offer anyone looking to place a wager a chance to bet on the current candidates. At the time of this writing, the candidate with the best odds, standing at 9/2, is the former member of the Georgia House of Representatives Stacey Abrams, who famously lost a close race during the 2018 Gubernational Elections in her home state. Runners-up on the list of bookies odds include Kamala Harris, Nina Turner, and Elizabeth Warren.
While we all know that politics is impossible to predict with certainty, the bookmakers have a pretty good track record. If you’re looking to bet on politics in 2020, make sure to consult the latest odds to see how your chances look.